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BLACKBOXSTOCKS INC. (BLBX)·Q2 2021 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2021 revenue rose 81% year over year to $1.46M as subscriber growth and higher marketing spend continued; gross margin remained strong at ~72% .
  • Sequentially, revenue was slightly below Q1 2021 ($1.49M) and operating income swung to a loss as operating expenses increased 125% YoY on heavier marketing and product development .
  • No formal quantitative guidance was issued; management reiterated expectations for continued strong revenue growth driven by marketing and new technology investments .
  • No S&P Global Wall Street consensus estimates were available for Q2 2021 (company traded on OTC Pink in the period), so vs-estimate comparisons are not provided .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Robust YoY topline growth: revenue +81% YoY to $1.46M; H1 2021 revenue +141% YoY to $2.95M, reflecting subscriber growth and effective marketing .
    • Durable gross margin profile: Q2 gross margin ~72% vs 70% in Q2 2020; management does not expect significant changes absent mix shifts or unexpected cost increases .
    • Management confidence and product roadmap: “We will be implementing new technology designed to allow us to scale even faster and more efficiently during the remainder of fiscal 2021” — CEO Gust Kepler .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Profitability pressure: operating loss of $(0.12)M in Q2 (vs. +$0.05M in Q2 2020) as operating expenses rose 125% YoY on higher marketing, SG&A, and software development .
    • Bottom-line decline: net loss of $(0.24)M vs. +$0.19M in Q2 2020, reflecting higher OpEx and ongoing interest/discount amortization .
    • Working capital and controls: working capital deficit of $0.93M at quarter-end and a continuing material weakness in internal controls (segregation of duties) .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2020Q1 2021Q2 2021Wall St. Consensus
Revenue ($)$808,848 $1,489,668 $1,463,606 N/A
Gross Margin (%)70% 73.4% 72% N/A
Operating Income ($)$46,716 $145,132 $(117,523) N/A
Net Income ($)$193,827 $12,555 $(243,336) N/A
EPS (basic) ($)$0.02 $0.00 $(0.03) N/A

Segment/Revenue Mix

Revenue ComponentQ2 2020Q1 2021Q2 2021
Subscriptions ($)$801,048 $1,485,798 $1,460,376
Other Revenues ($)$7,800 $3,870 $3,230
Total Revenues ($)$808,848 $1,489,668 $1,463,606

KPIs and Balance Sheet Indicators

KPI / Balance MetricFY 2020 (12/31)Q1 2021 (3/31)Q2 2021 (6/30)
Cash and Equivalents ($)$972,825 $1,114,468 $626,490
Unearned Subscriptions (Deferred Rev) ($)$1,016,157 $1,094,993 $926,169
Working Capital (Deficit) ($)$(990,738) $(678,125) $(932,752)
Gross Margin (%)73.4% 72%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Formal quantitative guidance (revenue, margins, opex, etc.)FY 2021None disclosedNone disclosed; management “expects strong revenue growth to continue” and plans new technology to scale fasterMaintained qualitative outlook

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: No Q2’21 earnings call transcript identified in company filings; themes below reflect press releases and MD&A.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2020)Previous Mentions (Q1 2021)Current Period (Q2 2021)Trend
Marketing spend and growth2020: user base +309% YoY; capital enabled sustained marketing initiative Marketing up 135% YoY; revenue +259% YoY; operating income positive Marketing up 143% YoY; revenue +81% YoY; OpEx up 125% YoY Growing investment; driving topline, weighing on near-term profits
Technology/product roadmap (AI/social, native app)Platform and live audio/video feature highlighted Continued enhancements; social component emphasized Significant increase in software development; native app and new product development Accelerating development
Gross margin trajectory2020 full-year mix not providedGM 73.4% (fixed cost leverage) GM 72% (stable; not expected to change materially) Stable high-60s/low-70s
Capital structure/debt serviceRefinanced “potentially toxic” converts; +$1.0M debt financing Debt service lower after 2020 refi; amortization of discounts ongoing Convertible notes near repayment; interest expense to remain consistent; principal on senior debt begins Dec-2021 Improving as converts retire

Management Commentary

  • “Blackboxstocks recorded triple digit revenue growth during the first half of 2021, and with the large investments in marketing and technology that we’ve been making, we expect strong revenue growth to continue. We will be implementing new technology designed to allow us to scale even faster and more efficiently during the remainder of fiscal 2021.” — Gust Kepler, CEO .
  • “We do not expect our gross margins to change significantly from their current level unless we add additional products with different margins or incur unexpected cost increases.” — MD&A on profitability profile .
  • 2020 set the stage: “obtained the capital necessary to conduct a sustained marketing initiative that drove an increase in our user base of 309% over 2019… looking forward to another banner year in 2021.” — Gust Kepler .

Q&A Highlights

No Q2 2021 earnings call transcript was available in company filings; as a result, there are no Q&A takeaways to report.

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for Q2 2021 (revenue and EPS) were unavailable for BLBX; the company’s OTC Pink listing at the time may have limited analyst coverage .
  • Without consensus, no beat/miss analysis vs. Wall Street is provided.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue growth remains strong YoY (+81% in Q2), driven by paid subscriber growth; however, sequential revenue modestly declined from Q1 2021 as marketing spend ramped and short-term trading enthusiasm normalized vs. Q1’s elevated activity .
  • Gross margins are attractive and stable (~72–73%), suggesting incremental operating leverage potential once marketing and development investments normalize or begin to scale more efficiently .
  • Operating expenses surged (+125% YoY) on marketing (+143% YoY), SG&A (+95% YoY), and software development (+251% YoY), pushing Q2 to an operating loss; near-term profitability hinges on pacing of growth investment vs. revenue .
  • Net loss of $(0.24)M reflects both higher OpEx and debt-related amortization; as convertible notes are substantially repaid by Q3, net interest/discount drag should ease, reducing financing headwinds over the next 12 months .
  • Liquidity tightened sequentially (cash $0.63M; unearned subs $0.93M), and the working capital deficit widened vs. Q1; manage cash prudently as senior debt amortization commences in Dec-2021 .
  • Execution catalysts: continued subscriber growth from marketing, rollout of native app/new features, and potential listing progress (historic advisory incentives tied to a NASDAQ listing) could support multiple and demand .
  • Risk factors to monitor: going-concern language historically disclosed; a material weakness in internal controls (segregation of duties) persists; both bear watching as the company scales .

Appendix: Prior Period Reference

  • FY 2020 recap: revenue $3.37M (+217% YoY); positive operating cash flow; refinancing reduced financing cost burden entering 2021 .
  • Q1 2021 snapshot: revenue $1.49M (+259% YoY); gross margin 73.4%; operating income $0.15M; net income $12.6K as revenue scale and fixed cost leverage offset investment .